Pieces you can send to your partners.
Deeper essays on the housing market — what’s driving prices, where correction is coming, what we got right and wrong. Longer than the weekly briefings at /notes, shorter than a white paper. Free. Backed by public data.
Jobs drive housing. Here's our ranking of every US metro.
Every time we audit our own forecasts, the single feature that keeps mattering most for next year's house prices is employment growth — not rates, not inventory. We rank all 410 US metros on a four-factor labor score and flag 23 metros where the jobs picture doesn't match the consensus narrative.
Phoenix, Austin, Tampa: the sunbelt correction, mapped
Six sunbelt metros are actively repricing as inventory finally catches up with pandemic-era migration. We identify the ones still carrying the most forward risk, and show whether the correction looks temporary (will reverse) or permanent (won't). For anyone holding sunbelt paper, this is a must-read.
Where the build-to-rent money is actually going
New single-family-rental construction has concentrated in eight sub-markets — driven by demographics and by better cap rates than multifamily. We map where the institutional capital is going, which metros get supply pressure, and how that plays into single-family values.