Pieces you can send to your partners.
Deeper essays on the housing market — what’s driving prices, where correction is coming, what we got right and wrong. Longer than the weekly briefings at /notes, shorter than a white paper. Free. Backed by public data.
The regional-bank CRE problem isn't only a CRE problem
Smaller banks hold two-thirds of US commercial real estate. We identify 14 metros where a 10% hit to office and retail values would break a local bank's capital ratio — and walk through why that matters for house prices in the exact same markets.
Q2 2026 outlook: prices up 2.8%, but it's the spread that matters
Our updated 12-month US house price forecast lands at +2.8%, but that national number hides a wide gap between sunbelt and coastal markets. The stickier-than-expected rent side of inflation is what keeps the Fed from cutting faster — we walk through what that means for the markets on your list.
If the Fed cuts 75bp, what happens to housing?
We model the link between 10-year Treasury yields and housing — affordability, inventory, transaction volume. A 75bp move in the right direction unlocks an estimated 420,000 additional home sales over the next year. We break down who wins, who doesn't, and where the biggest swings would land.