Pieces you can send to your partners.
Deeper essays on the housing market — what’s driving prices, where correction is coming, what we got right and wrong. Longer than the weekly briefings at /notes, shorter than a white paper. Free. Backed by public data.
Why your insurance bill is setting the price of Florida homes
Homeowners' premiums jumped 23% nationally since 2022 — but Florida and California took almost all of it. For buyers the monthly housing payment is now 2.8 points higher as a share of income, and transaction volumes and prices are bending in 27 metros. Here's which ones, and what we think happens next.
The regional-bank CRE problem isn't only a CRE problem
Smaller banks hold two-thirds of US commercial real estate. We identify 14 metros where a 10% hit to office and retail values would break a local bank's capital ratio — and walk through why that matters for house prices in the exact same markets.
Jobs drive housing. Here's our ranking of every US metro.
Every time we audit our own forecasts, the single feature that keeps mattering most for next year's house prices is employment growth — not rates, not inventory. We rank all 410 US metros on a four-factor labor score and flag 23 metros where the jobs picture doesn't match the consensus narrative.
Q2 2026 outlook: prices up 2.8%, but it's the spread that matters
Our updated 12-month US house price forecast lands at +2.8%, but that national number hides a wide gap between sunbelt and coastal markets. The stickier-than-expected rent side of inflation is what keeps the Fed from cutting faster — we walk through what that means for the markets on your list.
Phoenix, Austin, Tampa: the sunbelt correction, mapped
Six sunbelt metros are actively repricing as inventory finally catches up with pandemic-era migration. We identify the ones still carrying the most forward risk, and show whether the correction looks temporary (will reverse) or permanent (won't). For anyone holding sunbelt paper, this is a must-read.
If the Fed cuts 75bp, what happens to housing?
We model the link between 10-year Treasury yields and housing — affordability, inventory, transaction volume. A 75bp move in the right direction unlocks an estimated 420,000 additional home sales over the next year. We break down who wins, who doesn't, and where the biggest swings would land.
Where the build-to-rent money is actually going
New single-family-rental construction has concentrated in eight sub-markets — driven by demographics and by better cap rates than multifamily. We map where the institutional capital is going, which metros get supply pressure, and how that plays into single-family values.
When cities relax zoning, what happens to prices?
Minneapolis, Portland, and Austin all loosened zoning in the last few years — three real-world experiments you can actually measure. Early supply responses suggest meaningful price impact over a five-year horizon. Useful if you're betting on markets where policy can unlock new supply.
How we made our forecast more accurate — and what changed
Our v2 forecast adds unemployment, migration, and permit intensity as features. On an out-of-sample test the average error on 12-month metro forecasts dropped from 2.4% to 1.7%. A rare peek under the hood for clients and prospects who want to know how the sausage is made.